Climate Variability and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Bandar Lampung, Lampung Province, Indonesia

Climate impacts on health through ecosystem changes, namely the
increased risk of vector-borne diseases through the distribution and
abundance of vector organisms. The mean incidence of DHF (IR per
100,000 population) in Bandar Lampung from 2007 to 2018 was 104.20
(40.49-245.48), far exceeding the provincial (41.70) and national average
(51.36). The study aims to determine the effect of climate, namely rainfall,
temperature, and humidity of the number of dengue cases. Data sources
are from the Bandar Lampung Health Office and the Geophysics
Climatology and Geophysics Agency of Lampung Province. In data
processing, daily climate data is converted into monthly and annual data,
while the monthly DHF case data becomes annual. The analysis was
carried out in stages to obtain a strong relationship between climate
variables and the number of dengue cases. The analysis techniques used
are mean, minimum-maximum, product-moment correlation, and multiple
linear regression. The results showed that the average number of monthly
dengue cases in 2007-2018 was 79.19 cases (8-552 cases), rainfall 6.68
mm (0.00-24.10 mm), temperature 28.120C (24.00- 29,300C), and
humidity 79.71% (73.90-86.30%), while the climate factor associated with
the incidence of DHF was rainfall (p-value = 0.022), with an effect of
19.0%. This research provides preliminary evidence about the influence of
climate factors on dengue transmission